Geopolitical Watchlist & Sources

Geopolitical Watchlist

Live policy items tracked across this database, not tied to a single company.

• USTR Section 301 — China mature-node/'legacy' chips

  Determination issued Dec 23, 2025; a reported tariff timeline points to a mid-2027 'hard deadline' after an initial 0% reprieve window

  Who's Affected

  SMIC, Hua Hong, Nexchip; any US importer of finished goods with Chinese-fabricated legacy chips

  Why It Matters

  Directly targets this database's core segment; buyers sourcing from Chinese mature-node foundries face a moving tariff cliff

• CHIPS Act China guardrails

  In force — 10-year bar on expanding China production below 28nm for any US CHIPS Act recipient

  Who's Affected

  GlobalFoundries and other US awardees with China operations

  Why It Matters

  Reinforces the split between unrestricted allied mature-node capacity and constrained China capacity

• BIS Entity List additions (2025)

  42 PRC entities added March 2025; 23 more added September 2025

  Who's Affected

  SMIC and affiliated suppliers; risk of further additions

  Why It Matters

  Restricts US-origin equipment/software/EDA servicing for listed entities

• 'Node-agnostic' tool export controls

  In force — covers equipment usable for both legacy and advanced nodes, plus DUV multi-patterning technique controls

  Who's Affected

  China-based fabs of SMIC, Hua Hong, UMC (Suzhou)

  Why It Matters

  Even pure mature-node (28nm+) Chinese fabs can be capacity-constrained by controlled tool categories

• VEU status expiration (China ops)

  Expired Dec 31, 2025 for TSMC/Samsung/SK Hynix China fabs; individual annual licenses required from 2026

  Who's Affected

  Primarily those firms' advanced-node China ops; signals a broader tightening posture

  Why It Matters

  Raises compliance burden/uncertainty for any foreign-owned China fab, mature-node included

• TSMC Nanjing (Fab 16) VEU revocation, specifically

  Confirmed: Washington revoked VEU status for TSMC's Nanjing fab effective Dec 31, 2025; TSMC has stated it is 'evaluating the situation' and in talks with the US government to keep the site running uninterrupted

  Who's Affected

  TSMC's Nanjing 12-inch mature-node fab and its customers; equipment/software suppliers now need individual licenses per shipment

  Why It Matters

  Directly relevant to this database: Nanjing runs mature (16/12nm-and-above-adjacent) capacity, so any customer routing 90nm+ demand through TSMC's China sites should treat continuity as a live open question, not a given

• EU Chips Act support

  In force

  Who's Affected

  GlobalFoundries (Dresden), X-FAB (Germany/France), Tower (Agrate, Italy)

  Why It Matters

  Strengthens the case for EU-based mature-node sourcing as a lower-risk alternative for automotive customers

• India semiconductor mission / PSMC-Tata JV

  Dholera fab under construction, targeted operational ~2027, ~50,000 WSPM planned, 28nm+

  Who's Affected

  PSMC, Tata Electronics

  Why It Matters

  Adds a new geography to the mature-node map, explicitly framed as a diversification play

• Taiwan Strait tension / natural disaster overlay

  Ongoing baseline risk; 2024 M7.4 earthquake precedent

  Who's Affected

  UMC, VIS/VSMC, PSMC and any customer single-sourcing Taiwan capacity

  Why It Matters

  Reinforces the industry push toward Singapore/Malaysia/Korea/US/EU as geographic hedges

US Import Tariffs by Fab Country

Rates apply to imports into the United States from each country hosting a fab in this database. 0 of 12 countries have a rate recorded — the remainder are shown as not recorded rather than estimated.

Sources